It would be pointless for me to judge Matt Holliday's contract since he hasn't playing one inning yet. Instead I want to see what I've learned from reviewing the other big outfielder contracts and try and guess what the ultimate outcome of Holliday's deal will be. He's signed his deal going into his age 30 season which means his deal will end during his age 37 season. His deal will pay him $15 million a year ($17 is the base salary, but $2 million a year is deferred). In that respect the Cardinals have avoided one of the killer things on the bad deals- backloading the deal that pays more money as skills decline.

Holliday to me is an in-between of Carlos Lee and Manny Ramirez, but probably a little bit better defensively. His career OPS of .933 is about right in the middle of the two. There are a few questions that have to be asked about Holliday going forward, what will he do in Busch Stadium for a full season? Will he have the desire to play as hard now that he's gotten paid? Vernon Wells dogged it pretty quickly, and Carlos Beltran wasn't good his first season, but otherwise the norm seems to be that these guys keep producing after getting paid.

Will Holliday be able to handle the pressure that comes with his salary and position? He's behind Albert Pujols in the lineup, which means if he doesn't hit the Cardinals fall back into the same trap they've had since Edmonds and Rolen left. Also Holliday will have to deal with the fact that he's the one viewed as responsible for the Cardinals getting swept out of the playoffs last year. Those are the kind of things that can make a player try too hard (A-Rod is a perfect example of this).

Holliday has a lot going for him though. He's in a city where they, for the most part, are quick to forgive and forget (most of the time just to say they've done so) and he's 100 times more likely to get cheered like crazy than booed on opening day. The fans in St. Louis don't have a reason to resent Holliday and his big deal, and I'm willing to bet they won't totally overreact to a bad first month (I'm looking at you Cubs fans). Speed has never been a big part of his game, so it isn't like he's going to lose such an important element of his game now that he's in his 30s. Honestly it is the loss of speed that really did in Soriano, his legs just went and he's now just a free swinging slugger instead of a dual threat leadoff guy.

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I think Holliday's contract will be defined by two things: Do that Cardinals win the World Series while he is under contract, and does his massive deal prevent the team from keeping Albert Pujols. If they win the World Series while Holliday is on the team, it will be difficult not to call his deal at least somewhat of a success. Certainly it might not make the final two or three years of that deal seem as bad as they could be. The Cardinals World Series window is wide open right now, but because of point number two it could easily be slammed shut very soon.

If Pujols stays with Holliday and the Cardinals it is probable that they will have around $50 million tied up in two players. That makes it very hard to build a good team considering their payroll limitations. If Pujols walks the Cardinals have payroll space, but not the best hitter in the game. Bottom line the next two years very well could be the defining moments of Holliday's deal.

Of all the players we've talked about in this series I consider Holliday to be under the least amount of pressure (it could be argued Carlos Lee, but Houston isn't full of fanboys like St. Louis is) not only because of the nature of the fanbase, but because he isn't expected to be the best player on the team. The same can't be said for Manny, Griffey, Beltran, Soriano, or Wells. All were expected to be the best player on the team and lead that team to the promised land.

I think Holliday is in an excellent position to succeed throughout his contract. His power isn't likely to go anywhere, his defense may decline but he's playing left field so it doesn't matter as much, and he's part of a really good team that should have lots of success right away. If he is viewed as a failure at the end of his deal it will probably because Pujols left or Holliday got injured a lot, I don't see a Soriano or Wells like drop in numbers from him until the final year or two of this deal. I would guess Holliday's contract ends up being viewed just the same as I viewed his hitting at the start of this article, not quite as good as Manny, and a little better than Carlos Lee. Certainly I wouldn't expect to see him in the Soriano/Wells/Griffey conversation anytime soon.

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