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How the Sox Stack Up: Starting Rotation | Print |  E-mail
Written by Ken Boehlke   
Saturday, 06 February 2010 19:33

The starting rotation is where the Sox have spent most of their money, and this is where the Sox make strides against some of the best teams in baseball.  The midseason acquisition of Jake Peavy adding a true ace to the top of a staff of Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Freddy Garcia, gives the Sox one of the best rotations in the league.  With the two stars at the top followed by Danks and Floyd who are both on the brink of becoming great, and Garcia as the five man, the White Sox have as deep a rotation as anyone.

PeavyThere is a lot of concern about how Peavy will be able to hold up at the Cell.  The concern is warranted and is a key to how well the Sox pitching staff performs this season, but he has a lot more wiggle room than he ever had in San Diego.  Peavy's career numbers project him to win around 15 games with an ERA in the mid 3's and to strike out more than 200.  Sure his numbers may inflate a little bit because of the homer-friendly ballpark, but his offense should be able to back him up much more than in the past.  Peavy has won 19 games only once, yet has had an ERA under 3.00 4 times in his career.  In Chicago, a sub 3.00 ERA is near impossible.  But, in Chicago, an ERA in the mid to low 3's will almost always lead to a 15+ win season.  So sure his ERA may jump, but his win total, and more over, his effectiveness should not take too much of a hit.

In the AL Central there are a few star pitchers, but not one dominant rotation.  The Royals post reigning Cy Young winner Zack Grienke, but follow him with Gil Meche, Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, and Brian Bannister.  Not bad at the top, but nothing to build off any success created by the first two.  The Tigers have former Cy Young, Justin Verlander, but back him with Porcello, Bonderman, Robertson, and Scherzer.  Again, pretty darn good at 1 and 2, but not too much to follow.  The Indians have Westbrook and Carmona, but rely on Masterson, Huff and Laffey as well.  The Twins (Blackburn, Baker, Slowey, Liriano, Pavano) post a little more consistency throughout the staff, but lack the true ace.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox

Not only would I take the Sox top two against any of the other top pairs, but I'd be willing to take the Sox 3 and 4 against anyone else's 2 and 3.  Peavy puts the Sox in the mix with as to who has the best "ace".  Buehrle is without a doubt the best 2 starter in the division.  And Danks, Floyd, and Garcia give the Sox the deepest rotation in the division by a long shot.  The only full staff I can see even in the question with the Sox is Minnesota's.  You know what you are going to get out of every pitcher in a Twins uniform, strikes, strikes, and more strikes.  But you also know that unless there's another Johan Santana that we don't know about, none of those guys will be aces.  The White Sox 1-4 all have a shot at being a top-line guy, the Twins might luck out with one.

The Sox stronghold on the division when it comes to rotations doesn't extend as much to the rest of the AL, but they are certainly in the question at or near the top.  The best rotation in the league on paper is clearly the Yankees.  With Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Chamberlain returning from 2009's best rotation, the Yankees added former White Sox starter Javy Vazquez to round out the staff.  Vazquez has struggled in New York in the past, and as Sox fans know well, he's not very good in big games, but slotting an NL Cy Young contender in as the 3-starter, and you got yourself a dominant rotation.

The Red Sox, Angels, and Rays all have really good rotations, but with the acquisition of Cliff Lee, the Mariners have a chance to jumpall three of them as the 2nd best in the AL. But with Snell, Rowland-Smith and Fister slotting in at 3,4,5 they might be a little short at the back end.

If I had to rank them all, the Sox would fall in 3rd behind the Yankees and Red Sox, but with a breakthrough year from Danks and/or Floyd they can easily catapult into that top spot.

Photo courtesy of vivalavidro.files.wordpress.com.

 



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Comments (4)Add Comment
Food for thought...
written by gregmitchell, February 06, 2010
I agree the Sox have a good rotation, but I have these two thoughts off the top of my head:
1. I'd take Felix/Cliff Lee, Sabathia/Burnett, Lincecum/Cain, Carpenter/Wainwright over Buehrle and Peavy. I think the argument could be made for Lilly/Zambrano based on how they all pitched last year, but I'm not convinced on that myself.

2. Assuming Josh Beckett is the Red Sox No. 1 starter, I'd take Lester and Lackey over Danks and Floyd. I'd think about Cain/Zito and Haren/Edwin Jackson too.

I am bored at the copy-desk.
...
written by kenboehlke, February 07, 2010
These posts were only meant to be comparing the Sox to the rest of the American League, so I didn't get into how they compare to the Giants, Cardinals or the Cubs. As far as comparing just Buehrle/Peavy vs. Felix/Cliff Lee or Sabathia/Burnett, I think you would be surprised how the Sox stack up.

I'll list career 1 season averages(career stats divided to equal a 162 game season).

Peavy - 15-11, 3.26 ERA , 1.182 WHIP, 216 K, 70 BB, 120 ERA+
Buehrle - 15-11, 3.80 ERA, 1.268 WHIP, 129 K, 51 BB, 122 ERA+

Hernandez - 14-10, 3.45 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 200 K, 71 BB, 125 ERA+
Lee - 16-9, 3.97 ERA, 1.300 WHIP, 159 K, 59 BB, 109 ERA+

Sabathia - 16-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.232 WHIP, 188 K, 70 BB, 121 ERA+
Burnett - 14-12, 3.84 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 204 K ,92 BB, 110 ERA+

I know those are career numbers, but they pretty clearly indicate that Peavy/Buehrle is the best of those 3 pairs. If you go by last season, Buehrle's numbers are almost identical to his career and Peavy was hurt so it's hard to compare. It's not uncommon to underestimate what Mark Buehrle does. He consistently puts up a sub-4 ERA in a majorly hitter friendly ballpark, while throwing at least 200 IP every single year (9 years and counting). Like I said in the article, I bet Peavy's numbers do inflate a little, but the combo is still better than anything else in the AL based on numbers alone.

Your second point comparing Lackey and Lester to Danks and Floyd, I was trying to say that I'd take Danks and Floyd vs. any 2/3 in the Central not the whole league. I agree that I'd take Lester/Lackey vs. Danks/Floyd, but your give me Buehrle/Danks vs. Lester/Lackey and I'm right back on the Sox bandwagon.
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written by gregmitchell, February 07, 2010
I'll concede Sabathia/Burnett to you. But Felix/Lee I'll still argue:

I don't see how career numbers prove that much. We are talking about what they will do next season, not what they have accomplished over their careers. I think how they performed the previous year is a better indicator than career averages. How does what Mark Buehrle did in 2002 have anything to do with the pitcher he is now? Or Peavy when he first came up or Lee struggling at the beginning of his career?

The real issue to me is that Buehrle isn't in the same league as Peavy, Felix and Lee. Here are some numbers, and I'm including Peavy's 2009 because he pitched 101 innings, not ideal but a fair sample size:

2009 FIP: Peavy (2.99), Felix (3.09), Lee (3.11) and Buehrle (4.46)

WAR: Felix (6.9), Lee (6.6), Buehrle (3.4) and Peavy (2.6). What stands out to me was that in pitching only half as much, Peavy came close to being worth as much as Buehrle.

All three strike out more hitters, but I do understand that that isn't Buehrle's game and that he pitches to contact more which is fine. But Felix actually induces a lot more groundballs (53.4%) than Buehrle (45.2%). Lee (41.3%) and Peavy (42.3%) aren't far off that mark either, which to me says paired with their increased strikeout rates make them more complete pitchers.

I'm not trying to disrespect Mark Buehrle because with the no-hitter and perfect game he is one of the more accomplished pitchers in baseball.
...
written by kenboehlke, February 07, 2010
Very solid points.

I guess it comes down to how you set your expectations. If you base it on last season alone, then it's pretty obviously Lee/Hernandez, if you go by career it's Buehrle/Peavy. It's really interesting either way.

I think we need to lay a bet down. Pick a few stats that we deem as fair and put this argument to the real test.

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