Apparently I love writing series, mostly because it means I can take one idea and turn it into a number of posts. Perhaps not the best idea creatively, but it is the boring offseason (almost done, but not really) so whatever. This series is a preview for each position for the Cubs, a look at projected numbers for the guys who will fill the position and some disaster scenario talk. First up is first base.

First base has probably been the Cubs most steady position for the past six or seven years, basically since Derrek Lee showed up before the 2004 season. With the exception of his wrisy injury in 2006 Lee has played in at least 141 games each year with the Cubs, and before 2009 it had been at least 150 games a season. Lee has built his reputation as an iron man, though that is a reputation the age might be taking away. Lee has suffered neck spasms for the past few seasons, and it seems like every time he slid last season it resulted in him being removed from the game. Hopefully Lee and the Cubs training staff have developed something to help those spasms not occur so often this season.

Outside of his health, Lee had a fantastic rebound season in 2009. His 2008 season, especially the second half, led many (myself 100% included in this) to think Lee was on his way out. April 2009 just made those fears worse, but luckily Lee was able to rebound and put together one of his best seasons. His .412 wOBA and 5.3 WAR were both his best since his 2005 season. Since he is going to be 34 this season it is probably too much to ask for him to repeat those numbers.

The projection systems all expect somewhat of a dropoff from Derrek offensively, but not a tragic one. Bill James sees a .386 wOBA, but he is the most optimistic guy. CHONE and MARCEL projections have his wOBA at .371 and .374 respectively. Us fans have him at .381. CHONE is the only projected WAR on fangraphs right now, and they have him at 3 WAR projected.

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Personally I've had a tough time figuring out what to expect out of Lee. On one hand nothing out of the ordinary happened in 2009 that makes it seem like his numbers couldn't stay the same. He had his normal BABIP, didn't walk a ton more or strikeout a ton less than normal, and actually had fewer overall hits in 2009 than he did in 2008. The only difference was a nearly 100 point jump in ISO, some of which is probably good luck, but also some of it might have to do with his wrist healing up. Even with a dropoff in ISO to his career .220 range Lee might still be a force at the plate.

I'm going to settle on him being in the .375 wOBA range and probably around 3-3.5 WAR depending on how much time he misses. Probably 3.5 WAR if he reaches 150 games. Another Cubs Blog has him projected at 2.9 WAR, and they used actual math instead of just BSing a number like I did. That means they probably have a bit more accurate grasp, but I'm leaning towards the optimistic side of things for once.

Derrek's backups leave a lot to be desired however. Micah Hoffpauir is listed as the main backup on Cubs.com, but the team also signed Chad Tracy and Kevin Millar to compete for the role as corner infield reserve. We don't need stats to tell us that none of those three should be starting at first base for an extended period of time. Another name to think about is Xavier Nady who has played a little first before. Should Lee miss significant time with an injury I would guess a Nady/Hoffpauir platoon situation would come into play. UZR likes Hoffpauir at first (major SSS) so perhaps his defensive stability could make up for what seems to be a below-average major league bat. Either way, if Derrek is out for an extended period of time the team is in major trouble. Still first base looks like a strong position yet again for the Cubs in 2010.

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