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Tonight the Dodgers and Phillies start the NLCS after both teams breezed through their opening series. The Phillies didn't have quite as easy a time, but they managed to get the big hits when they needed to. This is a rematch of last season's 4-1 Phillies NLCS win, but the Dodgers have improved since then and might be the favorite going into the series. Let's look at the matchups
Starting Pitching
The Phillies will send Cole Hamels, Pedro Martinez (Yes), Cliff Lee, and either JA Happ or Joe Blanton to the mound. That lines up Lee to pitch a potential game 7 and Hamels would be able to come out of the bullpen in such a game. Lee has been brilliant so far in the playoffs and might be writing his very own Josh Beckett story. Hamels already has his and is looking to rebound from an iffy start in game 2.
The real wild card in this whole thing is Pedro. I regard Pedro as the best pitcher I've ever seen in my life, one of my first ever playoff memories is his relief appearance to win the ALDS in 1999. Pedro isn't that guy anymore, but he was a pretty good pitcher and he has a thing for the big moment. If he can be good the Phillies just might unbeatable in a long series.
The Dodgers are sending an impressive staff themselves- Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Hiroki Kuroda, and Randy Wolf. Kershaw is probably the best pitcher of the group and he was matching Adam Wainwright pitch for pitch in game 2 of the NLDS. Padilla destroyed the Cardinals to finish up that series, and despite his relative lack of being good it appears he is Jeff Weaver 2006 right now.
Kuroda was hurt last series and if he is healthy and ready to go he will be good. He had six shutout innings in his only start against the Phillies so far, and he was good in last season's playoffs. Randy Wolf went from game 1 starter against St. Louis to game 4 starter in the NLCS because he wasn't very good. He had bad control and just enough luck to get out of it for three innings before Torre went to his bullpen to bail the team out.
Verdict- Phillies have the better 1-2 punch so I give them the advantage here, plues the Dodgers don't need more than 6 innings from their starters anyway.
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Bullpen
The Phillies bullpen is kind of the worst thing ever. Scott Eyre is a good LOOGY and probably their most effective guy at his job. That is a problem. Ryan Madson is horrid right now, to the point where he is just as bad as "closer" Brad Lidge. The fact that those two are responsible for the last six outs of the game should make every Dodgers fan happy. One of either JA Happ or Joe Blanton should be in the bullpen for this series which helps a bit, but I'll bet game 7 is closed by Hamels and/or Pedro.
The Dodgers are the exact opposite. They have a lights out closer Jonathan Broxton (ERA+ 160). They traded for Orioles closer, now their 8th inning guy/LOOGY George Sherrill (NL ERA+ 639). To set up this dynamic duo is a trio of set-up guys Ramon Troncoso (ERA+ 153) and Ronald Bellisario (204) from the right side and Hong-Chih Kuo (139) from the left side. This means Torre is basically able to mix and match you right out of every matchup advantage from the sixth inning on. If his starter gets him to the seventh inning the game is probably over.
Verdict- Dodgers
Lineups
The Phillies lineup still makes me jealous. They have two speedy guys capable of hitting for some power at the top, follow that with a barrage of power hitters who also are on-base machines, and then finish off with Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz who both a solid hitters. I don't think it is possible for a pitcher to get through this lineup three times without getting beat up at least once. We saw proof of that in every game of the Rockies series.
The Dodgers have an impressive lineup themselves. Furcal is a big-time playoff performer, Kemp broke the Cardinals quickly. Then Eithier, Manny, and Loney are all capable of driving them in. Casey Blake is solid, Ronny Belliard is swinging a hot bat, and Russell Martin is about as good a catcher as you will find. This might not be the quick strike offense that Philly has, but it is capable of wearing out a pitching staff with long at-bats and Manny in the playoffs is about as money as it gets.
Verdict- The Phillies by a slim margin, they just have too much power
Bench
Basically this is a battle of Matt Stairs vs. Jim Thome. At least that is all I care to talk about. At multiple times this series each guy will get a big at-bat in the game needing to drive a run in. Stair led baseball in pinch hit homers this season, and is definitely the more experienced man in this case. Still Thome is a dangerous hitter in his own right and more than capable of getting a big hit.
Verdict- I'll take Stairs for his pinch hitting experience, but Thome hitting a big homer in this series wouldn't surprise me one bit.
Bottom line- Dodgers in 6. I just think the Phillies bullpen isn't good enough to get the job done if Lidge and Madson keep coming into games. If this becomes Cliff Lee vs. Kuroda in a game 7 though I'll take the Phillies.
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