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The affordable free agents are bad. the pitchers coming back in a potential Milton Bradley deal are bad too, but lucky for the Cubs we have one last place to look for our fifth stater. Luckily our internal options look strong and capable of getting the job done just as well as most of the names I mentioned in the first two posts. If I had to guess right now I think one of these guys would for sure start the season in the fifth slot, and while that person might not make it the entire time, you won't see an outside hire in the fifth slot all season.
Jeff Samardzija is the favorite to win the job in my mind, and it really has nothing to do with how he's pitched this season. Shark had a terrible season at both AAA and the bigs while he was working on a breaking ball, and has all but removed himself from most fans thoughts as a future star. The problem is the Cubs love him, he works hard (which is a good thing), really wants to succeed at pitching, and has himself a big fat contract. Samardzija is currently working in the Mexican League and is putting up some good numbers. Overall he has a 2-0 record with a 2.25 ERA. He has struck out 22 and walked eight.
In a perfect world Samardzija would spend at least the first half of 2010 in AAA as a starter. This time I think it would be better if he just pitched, rather than work on his stuff. His last start against the Brewers his split-finger fastball looked better, and he is working on a change-up in Mexico. His out pitch is his fastball though, and the Cubs didn't always let him use it in the minors last year. I would love to see what he can do when he is just pitching, rather than trying to develop pitches. Odds are though, at least in my mind, that Samardzija is given every possible chance in spring training to win the job and barring a complete disaster of a spring he will get the fifth starter to start the season.
That doesn't mean there won't be other options though. Tom Gorzelanny came over in the John Grabow deal and was somewhat impressive in his few starts. He was able to dominate the Reds and Pirates while he struggled with the better teams. He ended up with pretty poor numbers for the Cubs posting a 5.63 ERA. That doesn't tell the whole story though because of some bullpen games and two bad starts. He looked to be a left-handed Rich Harden almost because he was striking out a ton of guys and only lasting five innings. I think he would be my choice to start, but if he does start the season in the bullpen he is more than capable of stepping into the rotation if there is an injury.
Sean Marshall had a ton of value last offseason both to the Cubs and in the trade market. Sean has been shuffled back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen the past two seasons because Lou really wanted a lefty in the pen. Marshall was solid starting last season, but wasn't going deep enough into games at times. He lost his spot mostly because Randy Wells was so damn good. We still don't know if Marshall is capable of going an entire season in the rotation, he has had injury problems in the past, but it sure would be nice to give him a chance. If Samardzija fails and Lou thinks Gorzelanny is better suited for the bullpen Marshall might just get the extended shot he has probably earned.
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Now we get to the upsetting part, Aaron Heilman. Heilman was arguably the Cubs worst pitcher last season, each and every time he came in from the bullpen it felt like the other team had already scored three runs. He likes to walk batters and then serve up homers (kind of like Samardzija). It is also his dream to go back to starting, he was in the mix last spring training for the last slot behind Rich Harden and ended up coming up short. If the Cubs decide that they want to bring him back (by no means a sure thing) it might not be the worst idea to tell him to prepare as a starter. Don't confuse this with me wanting him to ever throw another pitch for the Cubs, I would prefer he be cut, but if he's coming back why not try him as a starter again the spring training? It would be a worst case scenario situation where he would actually make the rotation, but could he really do worse than Chad Gaudin (yes). On second thought, perhaps we should dive into the AAA stable rather than deal with Heilman.
There are also a number of exciting prospects that will be in AA and AAA this season that might be able to make a late season impact. The leader of that group (as far as being major league ready) is probably Jay Jackson. Jackson will be in his age 22 season in 2010 and more than likely will start the year at AAA Iowa. He went up for one start at the end of the season and posted a solid effort. Should Jackson put up a solid showing at Iowa this season, and iron out some of his control issues, I could see a situation where he is called up in August to pitch. More likely than not that call-up involves going to bolster the bullpen, still if it is the right situation Jackson might force himself into the starting rotation. Keep in mind that is probably a best case situation that involves a Cubs starting prospect actually developing.
Finally Andrew Cashner, his season will begin at AA, but if he continues his success from the AFL he will be in AAA soon enough. He will be in his age 23 season, he is trying to be a full time starter. Much like Jackson I can see a situation where he is so damn good that the Cubs call him up to start. Keep in mind this is far less likely than Jackson, and a Cashner call-up is almost for sure going to be for bullpen use where his 98 MPH fastball and plus slider can play set-up man to Carlos Marmol.
While there is a giant drop-off after the first three names, Cubs fans should feel content with the ability of those three pitchers to get the job done as the fifth starter. All three have the ability, and one of them turning into a legit starter makes this team so much better. I think Samardzija gets the first shot, but no matter how it ends up I don't think him, Gorzelanny, and Marshall will be a complete disaster.
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