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One of the hardest things to do in baseball is find a competent fifth starter who actually is a solid member of the rotation rather than make you cringe on days he starts. Each year teams big into the free agent scrap heap, their AAA team, and anywhere else they can to get that elusive fifth starter. The Cubs were lucky enough in 2008 to have Jason Marquis fill the fifth start with middle of the road numbers, which is awesome from your fifth starter spot. 2009 was a similar situation for most of the season, Rich Harden filled the fifth starter role with average numbers again.
Now a starter that posts 10-12 wins (not that wins matter at all) with an ERA in the low to mid 4s might not seem like a big deal, but when he is the worst pitcher in your rotation, well you have a damn good rotation. Right now the Cubs have their first four starters set- Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Wells. The tricky thing is going to be filling that fifth slot with the same quality they did the past two seasons. Reports suggest that Rich Harden's Cubs career is over so we will be looking elsewhere this offseason. Now I have my suspicions as the who will end up with the job going into spring training, but just for the fun of it lets look at the options, starting today with the free agents.
Now Rich Harden would be the first option I would explore. He has great stuff, already is comfortable in Chicago, and is due for a bounce back season. However the Cubs probably won't even offer him arbitration at the risk of him accepting and coming back (that won't happen, but Jim Hendry doesn't know that). I understand why the Cubs don't want him back- he is a major injury risk and becomes useless if he is in a regular rotation for more than three weeks. His Cubs career is over, and I wish him luck wherever he ends up (I would guess the Mets).
Most likely the Cubs have about $5 million to spend on this free agent starter, which eliminates names like Joel Piniero, Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, John Lackey (who wouldn't be our fifth starter), and a whole host of other names. I would love to see the Cubs pony up some cash and sign Lackey, or perhaps go all out for Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman. There just isn't money for that
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There are a number of guys out there who are coming off injuries, bad seasons, or old that might be had for pretty cheap and could post really good numbers. The main name- Ben Sheets who lost all of last season getting his arm fixed for the 100th time in his career. He was brilliant for the Brewers in 2008 before losing it at the end because his arm couldn't hold up. Sheets is 31 years old and won't command much salary given his injury problems. He would fit in perfectly with the Cubs who could give him ample rest throughout the season given the depth of pitching. It looks like Sheets is probably going to pitch for Texas though where he can be reunited with pitching coach Mike Maddux.
Erik Bedard is essentially in the same boat as Sheets, though he might not be as good a pitcher. Bedard was traded to the Mariners a few years ago (stupid trade) and now is a free agent that probably won't be back for Seattle. He is just 31 and provides a cheap option while he tries to prove his health. He has great stuff, and posted a 2.82 ERA this season while healthy. The thing is he usually can only go five innings a start, he is more or less a left handed Rich Harden. I don't see the Cubs getting into that situation again.
Justin Duchscherer put up stellar numbers in 2008 for the A's, but is currently dealing with depression and injury which caused him to miss the entire 2009 season. It would appear the despite having tremendous upside when healthy, Duchscherer just isn't going to be worth the risk given his mental issues. Jon Garland might appear to be another perfect fit, but a bit out of the Cubs price range. Randy Johnson and John Smoltz could both have huge upside, but their age suggests bad pitching is more likely.
Doug Davis being in a Cubs uniform would prevent him from tossing two shutouts a season against us, but his numbers aren't very impressive when he isn't facing the Cubs, so do you really want him? Other guys who might be cheap but are bad include the Adam Eaton, Brad Penny, Jason Schmidt, Bartolo Colon, and Brandon Backe.
Looking over these names there are some guys I would love on a one-year incentive laden deal (Bedard, Sheets, Duchscherer) and a few I would break the bank for (Chapman, Lackey). The Cubs probably don't want to deal with weak armed bullpen killers though, otherwise Harden would be back and this wouldn't be a conversation. They won't have the money or patience with Chapman, and Lackey is basically a Zambrano clone who would be way too expensive.
Realistically the Cubs won't be signing any pitching free-agents this offseason. Between potential trades and the internal options this postition can be filled without spending extra money. Tomorrow I'll look at those trade options.
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