With the rumor mill in full swing there will be plenty of debate about just how important various players are to the Cubs. Perhaps the biggest mystery will be our closer Carlos Marmol, a guy who might be a big trade piece but also could be too important to trade. Marmol has the reputation of being one of the better relief pitchers in the National League, but he also has the reputation of being quite wild with his pitches. After amazing campaigns in 2007 and 2008 Marmol met a ton of adversity in 2009. His previous struggles with walks (4.5 BB/9 in 2007 and 4.2 BB/9 in 2008) turned downright terrifying (7.9 in 2009) and he was no longer able to wiggle his way out of jams like he did before.

The switch to closer seemed to help Marmol with his control, but the concerns remain in 2010. Bill James projects him to have a walk rate of 5.5 per nine innings. Still an incredibly high rate for any pitcher, especially one who has to pitch in high leverage situations. The problem is the Cubs don't really have any better options if they lose Marmol. So if we do have to deal Marmol in the hypothetical trade for Curtis Granderson what closing options would we have.

The first guy to consider would be Angel Guzman who finally was able to put together some sort of a complete major league season. Guzman was pretty damn impressive when he pitched this season and certainly has the stuff to close out games. He combines decent control with a good ability to miss bats (1.049 WHIP) but he just cannot keep his arm healthy over the whole season. Triceps and forearm soreness sidelined him in May and again in September, he spend half of each season in the minors getting some sort of operation. He's a great pitcher when he's healthy, he just can't be given such a crucial role when he might miss a month or two.

John Grabow will be resigned soon and he might be the next option. His walk rate is high (4.1) and his stuff doesn't quite translate to closing. He is good at getting both left handers and right handers out so I have no issue with him being used in a bigger role than LOOGY. I just don't think I'm comfortable with him being the guy getting the last three outs of the game.

The best hope might be prospect Andrew Cashner who is currently working on being a starter in the Arizona Fall League. Cashner closed in college and his stuff would probably put him in a major league bullpen right now if he wasn't trying to start. His performance in the Fall League shows that he might be able to make it work as a starter so the Cubs could hesitate in bringing him up to close.

A trade of Marmol could trigger that to change though, and I would imagine that if Marmol left Cashner would be pushed towards closing pretty quickly. The A's have shown that a rookie closer can get the job done, especially over other options that are either injury prone or not good enough. Hopefully the best of both worlds can happen, the Cubs trade for Granderson and keep Marmol, but if Marmol does need to go Andrew Cashner is probably the best chance we have at ending games without too much heartbreak.

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