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In the never ending quest to see what the Cubs are working with going into 2010 we get to look at yet another computer projection system. The CHONE projections for hitters were released the other day giving us a picture of what things might look like in 2010 for every team in the majors. Before we look at what the Cubs will look like according to these projections I think it is important to remember that these are simply projections and not a perfect crystal ball.
Things don't look so hot for the Cubs offense in 2010, overall the team is only projected to have seven players produce positive offensive value over 150 games, two of them being role players most likely. Meanwhile there are some very disturbing projections like the one for Alfonso Soriano which projects a line of .259/.312/.471 with 26 homers. That will be a problem for the Cubs if Soriano produces in that area. Ideally I think that batting average is about 10 points higher, same with the OBP.
The good and bad news is Milton Bradley is projected to provide us with the most runs over 150 games. His line of .275/.383/.461 would be freaking awesome anywhere in the lineup so naturally the Cubs will move him for a much worse player. Aramis Ramirez also has a nice projection, and given better health than is projected we can probably see Aramis have his typically great season. The projected .291/.361/.504 looks really good over the 119 projected games, hopefully though the bad health isn't there this season.
Derrek Lee and Jake Fox are both given solid projections, Lee not surprising but Fox is. Bill James system really likes Fox in 2010 too. Granted these aren't trying to project defensive value, but if Fox really does have this potent a bat (which I have my doubts about) he might be a more valuable trade piece than I originally thought. Another strange projection of positive value is Micah Hoffpaiur who is more or less Carlos Zambrano like in his approach at the plate. If he really can match those projections he also has some value in the AL.
The last bit of good news here is that Geovany Soto is looking like a good bounceback guy. His .265/.354/..456 line would be perfect in the six or seven spot of the order. Other noteable Cubs include Ryan Theriot (.280/.350/.367), Jeff Baker (.256/.321/.422), Fontenot (.260/.329/.397), and Andres Blanco (.271/.320/.374).
Carlos Zambrano is projected to be better than the following major leauge players: Aaron Miles and Koyie Hill. He is about equal to what is projected out of Starlin Castro (who probably won't be in the big leauges anyway).
As far as other teams players go (see MB trade return guys). Pat Burrell gets a .225/.340/.400 line, Luis Castillo goes .273/.358/.342, and (just for fun of course) Curtis Granderson .267/.344/.469.
Like I said we shouldn't treat these or any projections as gospel, but they do show that the Cubs are projected to have a sorry offense without some career years or some new players.
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I don't however like to see Bradley's name associated with the Cubs in any form, real or CHONE.