Apparently I love writing series, mostly because it means I can take one idea and turn it into a number of posts. Perhaps not the best idea creatively, but it is the boring offseason (almost done, but not really) so whatever. This series is a preview for each position for the Cubs, a look at projected numbers for the guys who will fill the position and some disaster scenario talk. First up is first base.

First base has probably been the Cubs most steady position for the past six or seven years, basically since Derrek Lee showed up before the 2004 season. With the exception of his wrisy injury in 2006 Lee has played in at least 141 games each year with the Cubs, and before 2009 it had been at least 150 games a season. Lee has built his reputation as an iron man, though that is a reputation the age might be taking away. Lee has suffered neck spasms for the past few seasons, and it seems like every time he slid last season it resulted in him being removed from the game. Hopefully Lee and the Cubs training staff have developed something to help those spasms not occur so often this season.

Outside of his health, Lee had a fantastic rebound season in 2009. His 2008 season, especially the second half, led many (myself 100% included in this) to think Lee was on his way out. April 2009 just made those fears worse, but luckily Lee was able to rebound and put together one of his best seasons. His .412 wOBA and 5.3 WAR were both his best since his 2005 season. Since he is going to be 34 this season it is probably too much to ask for him to repeat those numbers.

The projection systems all expect somewhat of a dropoff from Derrek offensively, but not a tragic one. Bill James sees a .386 wOBA, but he is the most optimistic guy. CHONE and MARCEL projections have his wOBA at .371 and .374 respectively. Us fans have him at .381. CHONE is the only projected WAR on fangraphs right now, and they have him at 3 WAR projected.

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The White Sox bullpen was a big question mark in 2009.  The addition of J.J. Putz was supposed to sure up the pen in 2010, but the losses of D.J. Carrasco and Octavio Dotel leave the Sox in a similar situation as they were in last year.  Jenks is still a strong closer at the back and the Thornton/Putz combo in late relief gives the bullpen some hope.  But there are still questions in the middle relief with Tony Pena and Randy Williams.

In the division the Sox fall somewhere in the middle.  The Twins consistently have the best bullpen in the division and there's no reason to think that will change this year.  With Nathan at the back end, and Mijares, Guerrier, and Condrey nailing down middle relief the Twins pen is nothing to take lightly.  With the addition of Jose Valverde, the Tigers vaulted themselves into the race for top bullpen.  The Royals still have the dominant closer in Soria, but they didn't make any real strides to make the rest of the pen any better.  Finally there are the Indians.  Easily the worst bullpen in the division last season, and returning basically the entire team, they are most likely going to be right there at the bottom again.

If I had to take one of the four dominant closers in the division, I'd probably take Jenks last.  So that immediately puts the Sox behind the 8-ball when it comes to the bullpen rankings.  I like the Zumaya, Seay, Galarraga trio more than Mijares, Guerrier, and Condrey, but I'm not willing to say the Tigers are better than the Twins yet.  I'll say those two tie, the Sox are next, followed by the Royals and Indians.

You have to like the Yankees bullpen as long as Rivera is the closer.  The Angels have a very solid bullpen with the acquisition of Rodney.  The Red Sox are always good.  I like the Orioles move to add Mike Gonzalez.  The A's have the reigning Rookie of the Year and a few more young studs out there.  But to give an accurate rank on bullpens as they stand right now in the entire AL is nearly impossible.  So I'll say this, the Sox are not in the upper echelon, but they are also not near the bottom.  It's going to come down to how well Putz can rebound from his season in New York.  If he steps up, the Sox will be fine, if he doesn't, they may need some extra runs late more often than they had hoped.

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So this doesn't really have anything to do with the Cubs or White Sox, but it could have an impact on the future. According to this article in the Boston Globe, if free agent signee John Lackey has to undergo Tommy John surgery at anytime during his 5 year contract, he then has to play for the league minimum.

The Sox were concerned enough about the wear and tear on Lackey’s elbow to warrant contract protection. They did it in a very creative manner, which was subject to the approval of Major League Baseball and the Players Association, and as a result, Lackey would have to play for the major league minimum if he undergoes Tommy John surgery at any time during the five years.

The starting rotation is where the Sox have spent most of their money, and this is where the Sox make strides against some of the best teams in baseball.  The midseason acquisition of Jake Peavy adding a true ace to the top of a staff of Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Freddy Garcia, gives the Sox one of the best rotations in the league.  With the two stars at the top followed by Danks and Floyd who are both on the brink of becoming great, and Garcia as the five man, the White Sox have as deep a rotation as anyone.

There is a lot of concern about how Peavy will be able to hold up at the Cell.  The concern is warranted and is a key to how well the Sox pitching staff performs this season, but he has a lot more wiggle room than he ever had in San Diego.  Peavy's career numbers project him to win around 15 games with an ERA in the mid 3's and to strike out more than 200.  Sure his numbers may inflate a little bit because of the homer-friendly ballpark, but his offense should be able to back him up much more than in the past.  Peavy has won 19 games only once, yet has had an ERA under 3.00 4 times in his career.  In Chicago, a sub 3.00 ERA is near impossible.  But, in Chicago, an ERA in the mid to low 3's will almost always lead to a 15+ win season.  So sure his ERA may jump, but his win total, and more over, his effectiveness should not take too much of a hit.

In the AL Central there are a few star pitchers, but not one dominant rotation.  The Royals post reigning Cy Young winner Zack Grienke, but follow him with Gil Meche, Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, and Brian Bannister.  Not bad at the top, but nothing to build off any success created by the first two.  The Tigers have former Cy Young, Justin Verlander, but back him with Porcello, Bonderman, Robertson, and Scherzer.  Again, pretty darn good at 1 and 2, but not too much to follow.  The Indians have Westbrook and Carmona, but rely on Masterson, Huff and Laffey as well.  The Twins (Blackburn, Baker, Slowey, Liriano, Pavano) post a little more consistency throughout the staff, but lack the true ace.

Not only would I take the Sox top two against any of the other top pairs, but I'd be willing to take the Sox 3 and 4 against anyone else's 2 and 3.  Peavy puts the Sox in the mix with as to who has the best "ace".  Buehrle is without a doubt the best 2 starter in the division.  And Danks, Floyd, and Garcia give the Sox the deepest rotation in the division by a long shot.  The only full staff I can see even in the question with the Sox is Minnesota's.  You know what you are going to get out of every pitcher in a Twins uniform, strikes, strikes, and more strikes.  But you also know that unless there's another Johan Santana that we don't know about, none of those guys will be aces.  The White Sox 1-4 all have a shot at being a top-line guy, the Twins might luck out with one.

The Sox stronghold on the division when it comes to rotations doesn't extend as much to the rest of the AL, but they are certainly in the question at or near the top.  The best rotation in the league on paper is clearly the Yankees.  With Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Chamberlain returning from 2009's best rotation, the Yankees added former White Sox starter Javy Vazquez to round out the staff.  Vazquez has struggled in New York in the past, and as Sox fans know well, he's not very good in big games, but slotting an NL Cy Young contender in as the 3-starter, and you got yourself a dominant rotation.

The Red Sox, Angels, and Rays all have really good rotations, but with the acquisition of Cliff Lee, the Mariners have a chance to jumpall three of them as the 2nd best in the AL. But with Snell, Rowland-Smith and Fister slotting in at 3,4,5 they might be a little short at the back end.

If I had to rank them all, the Sox would fall in 3rd behind the Yankees and Red Sox, but with a breakthrough year from Danks and/or Floyd they can easily catapult into that top spot.

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Spring Training hasn't started yet and I'm already tired of Kevin Millar and all of his "stuff". He was on ESPN Radio yesterday talking about team chemistry and intangibles. Gross, and to think we have an entire Spring Training of this kind of stuff. The quote that really get me is

"Everybody is looking at stats ... I get it, But my point is when you're making a team and trying to bring in a bunch of different personalities I think everybody's got a certain amount of intangibles that they bring."

Kevin everybody is looking at stats because at the end of the day that is what matters. Your chemistry and intangible crap really helped the Blue Jays and Orioles in recent years. To me it seems like you are an aging player who is no longer capable of providing the stats, so you are trying to create some sort of value for yourself. The fact that it goes along perfectly with Jim Hendry's offseason mantra (improve clubhouse chemistry at all costs) means this isn't the last we hear of this.

Luckily Millar has about as good a chance of making the 25 man roster as I do. The Cubs have little to no use for a bad defensive player who posted an awesome .311 OBP last season. This guy is a clown who is about to be done playing baseball, unless he agrees to "cowboy up" for the Cubs AAA team. I really don't need to read about what a great guy he is and how much fun the team will have with him around, he isn't a good baseball player anymore. As far as I'm concerned he is more of an annoyance than he is a benefit to the club. Thankfully we won't have to deal with him during the regular season.

It appears we know why the Cubs weren't after any of the major free agents this offseason, the Ricketts are making Wrigley all nice and comfy for the players according to Bruce Levine. I'm only kidding about the free agents thing, but it does seem like the Cubs players will finally get some more space in the clubhouse.

A brand-new players lounge with major-league comfort levels is part of the construction in the area of the clubhouse where the weight room and cardio room once existed. The weight room will be relocated down the hall, where the old umpires locker room once stood. The umps will be sent to what was an old storage area under the first-base box seats, halfway up the visiting team’s clubhouse ramp.

Also coming is a nutritionist to help plan out the Cubs meals since they cook more than any other team in baseball. Due to all the day baseball often there is breakfast, lunch, and post game food served. That is a lot of food to cook.

That open fence in right field? They are making one in left too, along with doing some cleanup work on the scoreboard which the story notes hasn't been fixed since 1937. Finally, because I know there is a strong desire for it, you can buy the Rickett's bison beef sandwiches in the outfield concession stand. Bison and the Cubs that's what the Ricketts family does.

This is really good news though for players and fans. The home clubhouse is an infamous disaster, and making the stadium a little nicer never hurt anybody.

To read the first part of the Roundtable look right below this post.  In this post we pick our surprises and dissapointments around baseball and talk a little college hoops. The great Texas Rangers debate might be on next week you will see why in the answers below.

4. What surprise team do you see this season?
Greg Mitchell (Cubs)- I think the Oakland A's will surprise many this season. The AL West has become much more competitive since the season ending as the M's, Rangers and A's have added while it appears the Angels have come down. The M's and Rangers seemingly have had better offseasons, but if the A's catch a couple breaks they could be right there. If one of Ben Sheets or Justin Duchscherer can be healthy (or maybe go a half season each) their pitching staff will be among the best in baseball. Their bullpen is very solid with Andrew Bailey and Brad Ziegler. The offense does leave something to be desired, but the M's and Angels don't stand out there either and the Rangers (even after adding Harden and Chris Ray) have a lot of questions with their pitching.

Ryan Huber (Cardinals)- My surprise team isn't much of a surprise team, but I think this year is their year. I also am biased since I covered the team last season. The Rangers are ready to make their bid for the World Series. From solid starting pitching to a power lineup to a halfway decent bullpen, this team has all the chemistry to make some noise come September.

Despite the fact I am taking an incredibly boring and fluff-filled psychology of sport class this semester, I'm not going to sit here and pretend to know exactly what is going on inside Marmol's head. But there seem to be signs he is in a much better place mentally now than he was last season. Here is a quote in today's Tribune about the difference of going to Spring Training this year:

"There's no pressure on me," Marmol said. "I know there are a lot of possibilities, and if I put it those possibilities in my mind, I'm going to be messed up. Just calm down, and whatever happens, happens."

As odd as it may seem, the pressure seemed to affect Marmol a lot less last season when he was named closer. From the first time he went out to the mound in the ninth inning he became the effective reliever he was for the majority of 2008 than the walk-machine that had been setting up Kevin Gregg.

Seeing that quote makes part of me happy the Cubs didn't bring in someone like Matt Capps: a closer by trade and name that wouldn't be much (if at all) an upgrade over Marmol. However the other part of me thinks if we have a closer that can't handle even that amount of pressure, how will he fare in the ninth inning over an entire season. But back to why Mesa in 2010 will be a much happier place than it was in 2009 for Marmol.

The Tribune article also talks about how Marmol expected to get the job last year only to be beaten out by Gregg. There you have hit number two to his confidence that March. The first came in the World Baseball Classic when Marmol was credited with a blown save when the Dominican Republic was eliminated in stunning fashion by the Netherlands. An error by Willy Aybar at first base was what really blew the game, but Marmol was nonetheless on the mound trying to close the game in the 11th.

Marmol has shown before that confidence is related to how he pitches. After struggling before the All-Star break in 2008, he himself said that being named to the All-Star team really boosted his confidence at a time it was pretty low. After the break he returned to form. Lucky for the Cubs (and Marmol), this year there is no WBC and no closer competition.

It would be pointless for me to judge Matt Holliday's contract since he hasn't playing one inning yet. Instead I want to see what I've learned from reviewing the other big outfielder contracts and try and guess what the ultimate outcome of Holliday's deal will be. He's signed his deal going into his age 30 season which means his deal will end during his age 37 season. His deal will pay him $15 million a year ($17 is the base salary, but $2 million a year is deferred). In that respect the Cardinals have avoided one of the killer things on the bad deals- backloading the deal that pays more money as skills decline.

Holliday to me is an in-between of Carlos Lee and Manny Ramirez, but probably a little bit better defensively. His career OPS of .933 is about right in the middle of the two. There are a few questions that have to be asked about Holliday going forward, what will he do in Busch Stadium for a full season? Will he have the desire to play as hard now that he's gotten paid? Vernon Wells dogged it pretty quickly, and Carlos Beltran wasn't good his first season, but otherwise the norm seems to be that these guys keep producing after getting paid.

Will Holliday be able to handle the pressure that comes with his salary and position? He's behind Albert Pujols in the lineup, which means if he doesn't hit the Cardinals fall back into the same trap they've had since Edmonds and Rolen left. Also Holliday will have to deal with the fact that he's the one viewed as responsible for the Cardinals getting swept out of the playoffs last year. Those are the kind of things that can make a player try too hard (A-Rod is a perfect example of this).

Holliday has a lot going for him though. He's in a city where they, for the most part, are quick to forgive and forget (most of the time just to say they've done so) and he's 100 times more likely to get cheered like crazy than booed on opening day. The fans in St. Louis don't have a reason to resent Holliday and his big deal, and I'm willing to bet they won't totally overreact to a bad first month (I'm looking at you Cubs fans). Speed has never been a big part of his game, so it isn't like he's going to lose such an important element of his game now that he's in his 30s. Honestly it is the loss of speed that really did in Soriano, his legs just went and he's now just a free swinging slugger instead of a dual threat leadoff guy.

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The White Sox will enter the 2010 season with Alex Rios, Carlos Quentin, and Juan Pierre manning the outfield.  Quentin will shift from left to right, Rios is slotted in as the center fielder, and Pierre will play left.  Rios and Quentin both had tough seasons last year hitting .199 and .238 respectively, while Pierre hit a solid .308 in LA last year.

If Pierre can replicate last year, Quentin can stay healthy, and Rios returns to his averages, the Sox outfield has a shot to be strong.  But there's no guarantee Quentin can stay healthy, Pierre is aging, and Rios still has not proved anything in his short time here in Chicago.  So the Sox can easily fall anywhere from a good outfield to a bad outfield in comparison to the rest of the league.

However, the Sox don't have a ton to do to be at or near the top of the AL Central when it comes to outfield units.  The Twins Kubel, Span, Cuddyer combo is good, but not anything to fear.  Ryan Raburn, Magglio Ordonez, and Clete Thomas is another solid unit, but again nothing special.  Kansas City touts former White Sox leadoff man Scott Podsednik, David DeJesus, and Rick Ankiel.  Cleveland has the best player in Grady Sizemore, but then follow that up with Shin-Soo Choo and Chris Gimenez, Trevor Crowe, or Michael Brantley.

I'd go out on a limb and say Minnesota has the strongest unit this side of the Sox, and Detroit's outfield has a chance to be real good if Raburn and Clete Thomas can break out a little more than each did last year.  Sizemore is a stud, but I'm not sure you can count on a repeat of Choo's 2009 and it's anyones guess what they get out of the left field spot.  So based on these 5 outfields, the Sox will probably end up having the best unit in the division even if Quentin and Rios don't play like they are fully capable of.

But the rest of the AL doesn't look so good for the Sox in comparison.  The Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels are the class of outfields.  The next level is about where the Sox fall in.  You have the Orioles, Rays, Rangers, Twins, and Tigers in this group.  To me the Rays and Orioles have young, but really good outfields.  Where the Sox have an "if" statement with Rios and Quentin, the same can be said in Baltimore and Tampa with the youth factor.  If Adam Jones and Reimold can play like we think they are capable of, that outfield can jump up into the top class.  The Rays have a little more stability, but are still waiting for B.J. Upton to have that break through season.

Overall, the Sox are most likely going to fall towards the middle when all is said and done.  They do have a shot to take that leap into the Yankee, Red Sox, Angel group if Quentin and Rios play slightly above expectations, but there's a better likelihood that they are each around their averages and Pierre is slightly below.  If that's the case, slot the Sox in as around 7th or 8th best in the league.  But that's still 1st or 2nd in the division.

Image courtesy of cdn.bleacherreport.com.